ABSTAIN was correct. Prediction rejected directional call on regulatory/macro cluster (Jamie Dimon/Coinbase crypto regulation clash) citing lack of independent catalyst or microstructure confirmation within sub-48h window. Subsequent crypto collapse (BTC -2.5%, ETH -5.3%) appears to validate underlying macro uncertainty, but this was NARRATIVE-DRIVEN, not catalyst-confirmed. Refusing sub-48h forecast on unconfirmed regulatory narrative was appropriate risk management.