SPY closes below 480 by April 15, 2026 (from current ~520 implied). VIX stays above 25 for 6+ weeks. First rat

The call FLAT

SPY closes below 480 by April 15, 2026 (from current ~520 implied). VIX stays above 25 for 6+ weeks. First rate cut delayed until June at earliest.

Made 2026-03-27 23:58 · graded in public

Wrong · score 0%

direction—

confidence78%

falsifies if—

resolves2-6 weeks

grade0%

VIXprimarySPYmentioned

Wrong — prediction made 2026-03-27 for SPY to close below 480 by April 15 (from ~520 implied). Current SPY at $634.09 shows NO downward move toward 480. This contradicts the severe drawdown prediction. Timeframe still open but current trajectory completely opposite to prediction.