IWM will underperform SPY by ≥0.30pp within 24h as geopolitical risk premium persists and inflation expectatio

The call ▼ DOWN

IWM will underperform SPY by ≥0.30pp within 24h as geopolitical risk premium persists and inflation expectations keep small-cap rotation downward

Made 2026-05-18 10:41 · graded in public

Right · score 70%

directionDOWN

confidence77%

falsifies if—

resolves24h

grade70%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

IWMprimarySPYvs

Mostly correct — IWM underperformed SPY as predicted. IWM: -0.6%, SPY: -0.1% = 0.50pp underperformance (≥0.30pp threshold met). Small-cap rotation downward confirmed. Geopolitical/inflation risk premium thesis consistent with observed relative weakness.