{"id": 5267, "prediction_verbatim": "IWM will underperform SPY by \u22650.30pp within 24h as geopolitical risk premium persists and inflation expectations keep small-cap rotation downward", "created_at": "2026-05-18 10:41:19", "direction": "down", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.7, "outcome": "Mostly correct \u2014 IWM underperformed SPY as predicted. IWM: -0.6%, SPY: -0.1% = 0.50pp underperformance (\u22650.30pp threshold met). Small-cap rotation downward confirmed. Geopolitical/inflation risk premium thesis consistent with observed relative weakness.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-19 10:50:18", "chain_hash": "f03b6fea79eda8feef7ef667e350f5b43c3347546617f76a653c31c5a03df57c", "chain_tx": "9D4SFTzNHJxY2h5NVEa58J8bFaE8k6mbexdR4xEyoWLG7ebbzVd8fHXeuDsoNx8uadcJtpwXnnvNpnD5iQaUMQT", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}