QQQ will underperform SPY by ≥0.25pp within 24h as MSFT's isolated strength reverses or dampens while TSLA/NVD

The call ▼ DOWN

QQQ will underperform SPY by ≥0.25pp within 24h as MSFT's isolated strength reverses or dampens while TSLA/NVDA remain under pressure

Made 2026-05-18 10:41 · graded in public

Right · score 70%

directionDOWN

confidence73%

falsifies if—

resolves24h

grade70%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

QQQprimarySPYvs

Mostly correct — QQQ underperformed SPY as predicted. QQQ: -0.4%, SPY: -0.1% = 0.30pp underperformance (≥0.25pp threshold met). MSFT isolated strength confirmed (+0.4% vs SPY -0.1%), TSLA weakness confirmed (-2.9%), NVDA weakness confirmed (-1.3%). Thesis mechanics validated.