QQQ will outperform SPY by less than 0.3% (remain within 0.3pp) within 24 hours, as MSFT's isolated strength f

The call ▲ UP

QQQ will outperform SPY by less than 0.3% (remain within 0.3pp) within 24 hours, as MSFT's isolated strength fails to lift the index above broad market decline momentum

Made 2026-05-15 18:10 · graded in public

Wrong · score 10%

directionUP

confidence67%

falsifies if—

resolves24h

grade10%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

QQQprimarySPYvs

Completely wrong. Prediction: QQQ outperforms SPY by <0.3pp. Actual: QQQ -1.5%, SPY -1.2%. QQQ underperformed by 0.3pp, hitting the exact threshold but in opposite direction. Moreover, the thesis was fundamentally incorrect—MSFT's +4.30% strength DID NOT lift QQQ, which fell 1.5%. The broad market decline momentum dominated isolated mega-cap strength. Direction completely inverted.