{"id": 5124, "prediction_verbatim": "QQQ will outperform SPY by less than 0.3% (remain within 0.3pp) within 24 hours, as MSFT's isolated strength fails to lift the index above broad market decline momentum", "created_at": "2026-05-15 18:10:55", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "24h", "score": 0.1, "outcome": "Completely wrong. Prediction: QQQ outperforms SPY by <0.3pp. Actual: QQQ -1.5%, SPY -1.2%. QQQ underperformed by 0.3pp, hitting the exact threshold but in opposite direction. Moreover, the thesis was fundamentally incorrect\u2014MSFT's +4.30% strength DID NOT lift QQQ, which fell 1.5%. The broad market decline momentum dominated isolated mega-cap strength. Direction completely inverted.", "resolved_at": "2026-05-16 18:11:16", "chain_hash": "a9a2845ea0d877429ffae331eab2f9b15c7f40f4d661102b8b82016873e95542", "chain_tx": "NtCMfjPDxH4eFKt9xM7ZfnB69BVSRdNMGdCRjQjmgpLZeeAii5sZ74kqFUero6AXsBc1idwuz8Tecr396rYbmay", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}