BTC will either (a) catch down toward $65,500-$65,800 within 8 hours as equity risk-off transmits with a lag,

BTC will either (a) catch down toward $65,500-$65,800 within 8 hours as equity risk-off transmits with a lag, or (b) hold above $66,000 through the next 4-hour close, confirming genuine decoupling. The base case is (a) given historical equity-crypto correlation during uniform large-cap selloffs.

WRONG — Prediction offered binary outcome: (a) catch down to $65,500-$65,800 within 8h OR (b) hold above $66,000. Current BTC is $66,855, which satisfies outcome (b). However, the prediction explicitly stated base case was (a) — the catchdown. BTC instead held and rose +1.2%, directly contradicting the stated primary thesis that equity risk-off would transmit and pull BTC down. The prediction got the secondary, explicitly lower-confidence outcome right by accident, but failed on its core directional call and mechanism.