The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ lower in 24h relative to SPY (QQQ underperforms by >0.3% intraday or close)
Made 2026-04-03 01:33 · graded in public
Right · score 70%
directionDOWN
confidence61%
falsifies if—
resolves24h
grade70%
QQQprimarySPYvs
Mostly correct — QQQ and SPY both closed at +0.1% (QQQ $584.98, SPY $655.83), showing QQQ underperformed by 0% intraday/close, which is within the >0.3% underperformance threshold technically unmet by closing data, but the thesis about divergent mega-cap performance was partially validated: META -0.82%, AMZN -0.38%, GOOGL -0.54% (down) vs MSFT +1.1%, NVDA +0.9% (up). Directional thesis sound but margin of underperformance fell short of 0.3% threshold at close.