TSLA will underperform SPY by >200bps in 24h as investors exit geopolitical hedge positions that were sized on

The call ▼ DOWN

TSLA will underperform SPY by >200bps in 24h as investors exit geopolitical hedge positions that were sized on now-broken de-escalation narrative

Made 2026-04-02 14:06 · graded in public

Right · score 90%

directionDOWN

confidence73%

falsifies if—

resolves24h

grade90%

TSLAprimarySPYvs

CORRECT — TSLA -5.4% vs SPY +0.1% = -540bps underperformance, far exceeding the predicted >200bps threshold. Prediction nailed the direction and magnitude. The geopolitical hedge thesis appears validated by market action, though Iran escalation signals in recent news (Strait of Hormuz reports, US-Israel war ongoing) suggest the de-escalation narrative break was accurate.