Wrong direction — IWM outperformed QQQ. Prediction required QQQ > IWM performance. Actual: QQQ +0.1% vs IWM +0.7%. IWM beat QQQ by 0.6 percentage points, opposite of prediction thesis. The Trump Iran threat and IBM-Arm collaboration thesis failed to drive the predicted relative outperformance. TSLA's -5.4% decline may have weighed on QQQ, but IWM's strength contradicts the prediction.