The call ▲ UP
IWM (small-cap domestic exposure) outperforms QQQ (tech/multinational exposure) in 24h window
Made 2026-04-02 09:52 · graded in public
Right · score 80%
directionUP
confidence59%
falsifies if—
resolves24h
grade80%
QQQprimaryIWMvs
CORRECT DIRECTION — Prediction: IWM outperforms QQQ in 24h window. Actual: IWM +0.7%, QQQ +0.1%. IWM outperformed by 0.6 percentage points. Thesis about small-cap outperforming tech in geopolitical uncertainty validated. Only minor miss: margin narrower than thesis suggested but directional call was sound.