The call FLAT
AMZN and META do not experience >2% intraday dip in next 24h despite Baidu news; thesis: geographic arbitrage (US vs China autonomy risk)
Made 2026-04-01 19:50 · graded in public
Wrong · score 30%
direction—
confidence70%
falsifies if—
resolves24h
grade30%
AMZNprimaryMETAmentionedChinamentioned
Partially right on outcome but wrong thesis — AMZN down -0.4% and META down -0.8% (both under 2% dip threshold, technically correct). However, this was NOT driven by predicted geographic arbitrage logic; market weakness was broad-based with TSLA -5.4%.