The call FLAT
Volatility remains subdued (VIX-adjacent proxy: single-digit intraday swings on mega-caps) over next 24h
Made 2026-04-01 18:21 · graded in public
Right · score 70%
direction
confidence70%
falsifies if
resolves24h
grade70%
Correct direction, mostly right. Prediction stated volatility would remain subdued (single-digit intraday swings on mega-caps) over 24h. Current data shows: SPY -0.0%, QQQ -0.1%, AAPL -0.0%, MSFT +0.6%, NVDA +0.9%, GOOGL -0.6%, AMZN -0.6%, META -0.9%. All mega-caps showing <1% moves, confirming subdued volatility. The dismissal of the phishing inbox signal as noise proved prudent. However, scoring 0.7 rather than 1.0 because crypto assets (BTC -1.6%, ETH -3.4%, SOL -5.8%) and TSLA (-5.4%) showed meaningful volatility, so the claim wasn't universally true across all risk assets.