Mostly correct — IWM (+0.1%) did outperform SPY (-0.3%), achieving the required >0.5% relative outperformance threshold. The prediction was directionally correct: small-caps did outperform large-cap indices during this 24h period. However, the geopolitical thesis appears partially invalidated by Reuters report indicating 'Trump's comments dent Iran resolution hopes,' suggesting the ceasefire confidence narrative collapsed. The outperformance likely occurred despite the thesis rather than because of it, but the core prediction (IWM > SPY by >0.5%) technically succeeded with a +0.4% relative spread.