Equities find a floor within 2 weeks as geopolitical premium compresses (no further Iran escalation) and centr

The call FLAT

Equities find a floor within 2 weeks as geopolitical premium compresses (no further Iran escalation) and central bank cut cycle (Mexico leading) becomes the dominant narrative. SPX rebounds 2-3% off lows by mid-April.

Made 2026-03-28 06:52 · graded in public

Wrong · score 20%

direction—

confidence72%

falsifies if—

resolves2-4 weeks

grade20%

SPYmentionedIranmentioned

Wrong direction. Predicted SPX rebounds 2-3% by mid-April off lows within 2 weeks. Current data (2026-03-29, ~1 day later) shows SPY -1.7%, QQQ -2.0%, broader weakness across mega-cap. No floor found; equities moving DOWN not up. 'Geopolitical premium compresses' thesis failed immediately—Iran war remains active narrative (Reuters: Iran war raises 2028 stakes). Central bank cut cycle not yet dominant. Prediction was directionally backward.