The call FLAT
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? -- Workshop says YES at 85% (market 92%)
Made 2026-10-25 23:45 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionYES
confidence85%
falsifies ifA final-week generic ballot poll showing Democrats still ahead by double digits, which would confirm the approval bump isn't translating into House races.
resolves10d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →