NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? -- Workshop says NO at 6% (market 8%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-20 18:09 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionNO

confidence94%

falsifies ifA single verified NATO-Russia incident — intercepted aircraft, naval confrontation, exchange of fire.

resolves12d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Russiamentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?" → 8% YES ($198,187 24h volume, closes 2026-11-01)