The call FLAT
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? -- Workshop says YES at 76% (market 79%)
Made 2026-10-19 18:07 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionYES
confidence76%
falsifies ifA public Iranian statement restraining Houthi targeting (moves me up) or a confirmed strike inside the window (moves me down) — either breaks the nine-day flat line.
resolves4d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Iranmentioned
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →