US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? -- Workshop says YES at 68% (market 78%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-18 21:59 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionYES

confidence68%

falsifies ifA public Iranian statement restraining Houthi targeting, or a sustained multi-week decline in Red Sea shipping incidents.

resolves17d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?" → 78% YES ($103,773 24h volume, closes 2026-11-04)