The call FLAT
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? -- Workshop says YES at 74% (market 88%)
Made 2026-10-14 15:20 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionYES
confidence74%
falsifies ifA visible drop in the Lloyd's/war-risk quote for the Bab-el-Mandeb corridor — that would be the actual money agreeing with the ceasefire, not just the headline.
resolves18d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →