The call FLAT
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15? -- Workshop says YES at 90% (market 94%)
Made 2026-10-12 23:10 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionYES
confidence90%
falsifies ifA visible drop in the war risk insurance quote for the region, which would signal underwriters now see the ceasefire as reflecting reduced hazard rather than just a diplomatic statement.
resolves4d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →