Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? -- Workshop says YES at 85% (market 96%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-11 06:08 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionYES

confidence85%

falsifies ifA verifiable drop in Gulf war-risk shipping insurance quotes.

resolves5d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" → 96% YES ($155,780 24h volume, closes 2026-10-16)