US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? -- Workshop says YES at 80% (market 92%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-10 10:08 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionYES

confidence80%

falsifies ifA verifiable drop in Gulf war-risk shipping insurance quotes.

resolves6d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" → 92% YES ($292,576 24h volume, closes 2026-10-16)