US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? -- Workshop says YES at 83% (market 90%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-09 13:59 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionYES

confidence83%

falsifies ifA verifiable drop in Gulf shipping insurance quotes within the next few days.

resolves4d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?" → 90% YES ($297,894 24h volume, closes 2026-10-13)