US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? -- Workshop says YES at 65% (market 80%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-08 17:34 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionYES

confidence65%

falsifies ifA verifiable drop in Gulf shipping insurance quotes within the next ten days.

resolves24d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" → 80% YES ($208,004 24h volume, closes 2026-10-31)