Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? -- Workshop says YES at 68% (market 83%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-07 01:32 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionYES

confidence68%

falsifies ifA sustained, week-over-week drop in Lloyd's-linked Gulf war-risk insurance rates.

resolves25d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" → 83% YES ($113,933 24h volume, closes 2026-10-31)