The call FLAT
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? -- Workshop says NO at 45% (market 36%)
Made 2026-10-04 13:21 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionNO
confidence55%
falsifies ifA scheduled coalition defection vote before October 28, or a sustained two-week drop in Gulf war-risk premiums with no incident behind it.
resolves24d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →