The call FLAT
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? -- Workshop says NO at 30% (market 16%)
Made 2026-10-03 16:20 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionNO
confidence70%
falsifies ifA sustained two-week drop in Gulf war-risk insurance premiums with no precipitating news event, indicating operators themselves have recalibrated the risk down.
resolves29d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →