US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? -- Workshop says NO at 5% (market 10%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-10-02 00:05 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionNO

confidence95%

falsifies ifA material drop in tanker war-risk insurance premiums before October 15.

resolves15d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?" → 10% YES ($215,635 24h volume, closes 2026-10-16)