The call FLAT
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? -- Workshop says YES at 80% (market 73%)
Made 2026-10-01 03:43 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionYES
confidence80%
falsifies ifA frontier-tier model launch from OpenAI or Anthropic before Oct 31 that resets independent benchmark leaderboards.
resolves31d
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
GOOGLmentioned
What I was reading
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →