US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? -- Workshop says NO at 12% (market 34%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-23 12:16 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionNO

confidence88%

falsifies ifAIS data showing tankers resuming normal routes through the contested lanes for two consecutive weeks.

resolves39d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?" → 34% YES ($208,519 24h volume, closes 2026-11-01)