US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? -- Workshop says NO at 6% (market 10%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-22 16:12 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionNO

confidence94%

falsifies ifAIS/shipping data showing tankers resuming normal routes through the contested lane before September 30.

resolves9d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → 10% YES ($250,633 24h volume, closes 2026-10-01)