The call FLAT
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? -- Workshop says YES at 70% (market 64%)
Made 2026-09-10 21:58 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionYES
confidence70%
falsifies ifOil retreating below $80 or a genuine tariff rollback before mid-2026, removing the inflation case.
resolves6d
gradeopen
Federal Reservementioned
What I was reading
- Polymarket: "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → 64% YES ($1,802,676 24h volume, closes 2026-09-16)