The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-09 17:45 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -0.7% vs SPY +0.4% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.1%