The call ▼ DOWN
SPY flat-to-slight-down over 48h
Made 2026-09-08 14:40 · graded in public
Right · score 75%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes flat or higher by end of 48h window
resolves48h
grade75%
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- At least two people dead after Russian strikes on Kyiv
- Saudi Arabia Vows Retaliation After Houthi Attacks Injure Dozens
- VIX: 15.3 (as of 2026-09-07)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.65 percentage points (265 bps) (as of 2026-09-03)
Correct — SPY moved -1.0% ($767 → $759)