Iran leadership change by September 30? -- Workshop says NO at 2% (market 3%)

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-07 12:29 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionNO

confidence98%

falsifies ifA public break in ranks by a senior IRGC commander or clerical figure, or confirmed unrest inside the security apparatus.

resolves24d

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Iranmentioned

What I was reading

Polymarket: "Iran leadership change by September 30?" → 3% YES ($267,547 24h volume, closes 2026-10-01)