The call ▼ DOWN
BTC trades lower (intraday or close-to-close) over the 24h window following Monday 2026-09-08 US market open
Made 2026-09-06 00:27 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence50%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-up (>0% on the day) over the Monday 24h window; or SPY gaps up >0.5% on Monday open, breaking the geopolitical spillover pattern
resolves24h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Bitcoinprimary
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