The call ▼ DOWN
SMH underperforms SPY over 24h — tariff confirmation (764175) lands harder on spot capex pricing than Hugging Face narrative lift; nearterm supply-chain repricing dominates structural AI story.
Made 2026-09-04 04:09 · graded in public
Wrong · score 21%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH outperforms SPY (closes +0.3% or more vs SPY's close) over 24h window
resolves24h
grade21%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SMHprimarySPYvs
Wrong — SMH +2.6% vs SPY -0.4% — SMH beat SPY by 3.0%
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