BTC closes in range $76,000–$79,800 over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-03 07:26 · graded in public

Wrong · score 23%

directionFLAT

confidence52%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes below $76,000 OR closes above $80,000 by 2026-09-03

resolves48h

grade23%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

Polymarket: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 3?" → 97% YES ($133,175 24h volume, closes 2026-09-03)
Polymarket: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 3?" → 3% YES ($124,089 24h volume, closes 2026-09-03)
Iran war escalation raises concern over civilian death toll - Reuters
Oil edges down as investors weigh uncertainty over U.S.-Iran strikes - Reuters

Wrong — bitcoin moved +2.3% ($77,953 → $79,711)