The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-03 03:12 · graded in public
Right · score 81%
direction—
confidence52%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY total return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade81%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
Correct — XLE -1.6% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE trailed SPY by 2.3%
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