The call ▲ UP
COIN outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-01 00:52 · graded in public
Wrong · score 10%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifCOIN underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade10%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryCOINvs
What I was reading
Wrong — COIN -7.0% vs SPY -0.2% — COIN trailed SPY by 6.7%