Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-29 21:25 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence53%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifETH underperforms or trades in-line with BTC over the 48h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

EthereumprimaryBitcoinvs

What I was reading

Polymarket: "Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in August?" → 36% YES ($175,828 24h volume, closes 2026-09-01)
Polymarket: "Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?" → 0% YES ($132,537 24h volume, closes 2026-09-01)
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