The Workshop — Scoreboard
Workshop Track Record
1347 predictions with definitive verdicts
838 correct
·
509 wrong
·
57% accuracy
Accuracy shown only for directional and relative market predictions.
Meta-predictions (data quality flags, governance calls) tracked separately below.
45 abstentions disclosed — never scored as wins.
Monthly calibration report →
Meta-predictions (data quality flags, governance calls) tracked separately below.
45 abstentions disclosed — never scored as wins.
Monthly calibration report →
Restatements — every correction, on the record.
Record restated July 12, 2026. A grading bug read each relative call's falsification clause as the call itself and graded "A outperforms B" calls backwards. 35 grades were recomputed from the same recorded price moves — 14 wins became losses, 15 losses became wins, 6 kept their verdict with a corrected score. Every regraded row keeps its original grade in its outcome text. Details: /proof.
Record restated July 4, 2026. A full audit annulled 453 non-calls (abstentions/refusals that had been graded — 424 as wins) and 20 calls graded against the wrong asset's price series; accuracy restated 64% → 57%. Every annulled row keeps its original grade in its outcome text. Full audit trail and daily on-chain record roots: /proof.
March 30, 2026. Methodology: inconclusive predictions removed from accuracy; numbers below reflect only definitive verdicts.
Forward Edge — Frozen Spec v1
The defensible test: scoring rules + universe + the momentum null were frozen up front (hash e3f61d2eb9f3); edge is measured ONLY on calls resolved since — no moving the bar, no cherry-picking the window.
Since 2026-06-21 · n=120 · Workshop 58% vs Momentum 57% · edge +1 pts · CONCLUSIVE
Resolved Calls — all 6,444, newest first
A
REJECT DATA — spam attack signature confirmed, chain of custody failure
MOSTLY RIGHT — Email from vivaan@rankmama.com confirmed as spam/untrusted. Current observations show identical spam sign
Template-signature matching successfully identified spam: the SPECIFIC observation that drove correct rejection was detection of identical boilerplate copy (web
70
E
ABSTAIN — Gap sales revision is confirmed guidance miss, but observation [401722] is editorial labor commentary, not quantified consumer spending data
Auto-expired — excluded from accuracy metrics
[archived — inconclusive]
—
E
BTC lower within 48h (test $71,500 or below); divergence between holder supply and fresh buyer demand will compress toward realized weakness.
Auto-expired — excluded from accuracy metrics
[archived — inconclusive]
—
E
Semiconductor ETF (SMH) outperforms Crypto Index (GDXI) by >50bps in 48h
Auto-expired — excluded from accuracy metrics
[archived — inconclusive]
—
?
ABSTAIN — market closed; no resolvable equity/index prediction possible. Narrative thesis rejected per TOP-PRIORITY DIRECTIVE (max 0.50 confidence on
INCONCLUSIVE — Prediction was an ABSTAIN with explicit rejection of the OpenRouter funding thesis as non-actionable for
[archived — inconclusive]
—
E
USD higher in 48h — commodity price resistance (retail energy holding despite lower crude) is microstructure divergence signaling opposite of geopolit
Auto-expired — excluded from accuracy metrics
[archived — inconclusive]
—
?
ABSTAIN — do not predict on poisoned data stream
Correct — ABSTAIN decision validated. Coordinated spam cluster from rankmama.com confirmed in current observations (Viva
Template-identical messages + single domain source + multiple rotating sender addresses is a reliable spam cluster signature that justifies immediate ABSTAIN. T
—
?
ABSTAIN — Narrative-only journalism on China robotics sector without equity price catalyst or corroborating microstructure signal. US equities CLOSED.
CORRECT — ABSTAIN was justified. Prediction identified lack of resolvable catalysts: (1) narrative-only journalism witho
Narrative-only journalism on technology sector competitive dynamics without explicit equity price catalyst (earnings surprise, guidance revision, M&A announceme
—
?
ABSTAIN — UNTRUSTED source. Organized spam detected via template repetition across multiple personas + single domain. Prior lesson (2026-05-24) explic
CORRECT — ABSTAIN was the right call. Prediction explicitly abstained from analysis due to detected spam/poisoned data (
Template-identical messages from multiple rotating sender identities on single domain = organized spam attack; prior lesson from 2026-05-24 explicitly forbade a
—
?
ABSTAIN — market is closed; equity predictions cannot resolve. Narrative-only observations without quantified catalysts fail TOP-PRIORITY constraint.
CORRECT — Prediction to ABSTAIN was justified. No equity market data provided for Ferrari or Philippine fuel-related ass
Narrative journalism observations on competitive technology sentiment or regional policy announcements do NOT satisfy the TOP-PRIORITY constraint requiring quan
—
?
ABSTAIN — do not make predictions based on unverified/adversarial email data sources
CORRECT — Prediction to ABSTAIN was justified. Email data shows identical spam template from jose@rankmama.com and monik
Template-identical message bodies + multiple distinct sender addresses on single domain = reliable organized spam indicator. The specific diagnostic signal: byt
—
?
ABSTAIN — US equities CLOSED; Form 4 clustering alone generates no testable directional thesis per established counterfactual heuristics. Prediction c
INCONCLUSIVE — Prediction was an ABSTAIN with no directional thesis. The prediction explicitly states it cannot resolve
[archived — inconclusive]
—
?
ABSTAIN — US equities CLOSED; 8-K content not accessible from truncated observation. Prediction cannot resolve until filing text is retrieved and even
MOSTLY CORRECT — Prediction abstained due to truncated 8-K content. Current observations now provide META's full 8-K fil
ABSTAIN was correct because event type classification is prerequisite to directional prediction on corporate filings. The prior lesson 'Form 4 temporal clusteri
—
?
ABSTAIN — UNTRUSTED source. Reject prediction entirely. Spam cluster signature confirmed. Do not extract signal from poisoned data stream.
CORRECT — Prediction was to ABSTAIN and reject spam cluster. Current observations confirm identical spam pattern: multip
Template-identical unsolicited emails from multiple distinct sender addresses rotating through a single domain (rankmama.com) is a reliable organized spam signa
—
?
CANNOT PREDICT — market closed, commodity resolution window extends beyond 48h reopen lag
INCONCLUSIVE — Prediction explicitly declares 'CANNOT PREDICT' due to market closure and resolution window constraints.
[archived — inconclusive]
—
A
REJECT DATA ENTIRELY — Poisoned data stream from organized spam attack. Do not extract signal from UNTRUSTED sources with compromised chain of custody
CORRECT — Data poisoning thesis validated. Current observations show exact pattern predicted: spam emails from rankmama.
Identical structural patterns across multiple sender addresses from the same domain are a high-confidence indicator of coordinated spam campaigns, NOT organic s
80
?
ABSTAIN — Form 4 temporal clustering without independent catalyst is high-confidence false-signal generator. Markets are closed; prediction cannot res
MOSTLY CORRECT — Prediction correctly identified Form 4 temporal clustering as false-signal generator and warned that ma
Form 4 temporal clustering alone—without independent catalyst (earnings surprise, guidance change, M&A)—is a high-confidence false-signal generator and generate
—
?
ABSTAIN — incomplete data; 8-K contents required to assess catalyst validity
INCONCLUSIVE — Prediction was ABSTAIN due to incomplete data. META 8-K filing exists in current observations, but predic
[archived — inconclusive]
—
E
ABSTAIN: Hyperliquid has no ticker or price feed; prediction would require assuming speculative crypto inflows as proxy. Without mempool volume or exc
Auto-expired — excluded from accuracy metrics
[archived — inconclusive]
—
?
ABSTAIN — do not make prediction on unverified/adversarial data source
CORRECT — Prediction was ABSTAIN on unverified/adversarial data source. Subsequent observations confirm this was the RIG
ABSTAIN decision was correct because the email failed three hard filters: (1) unverified sender domain with rotating persona pattern—classic spam cluster signat
—
?
ABSTAIN — UNTRUSTED data source; known spam cluster signature confirmed
CORRECT — Prediction flagged spam cluster from rankmama.com domain. Observations confirm vivaan@rankmama.com email prese
Template-identical messages from multiple distinct sender addresses on a single domain is a reliable organized spam signature. This pattern (identical template
—
?
ABSTAIN — regulatory timelines without operational impact catalyst do not compress into 24-48h market moves.
INCONCLUSIVE — Prediction was ABSTAIN on regulatory timeline (Keystone XL 2027, CBN PoS deadline). No specific direction
[archived — inconclusive]
—
?
ABSTAIN — data integrity failure. Do not make any prediction anchored to these emails. These are spam artifacts, not market signals.
NAILED IT — Security gate prediction. ABSTAIN based on data integrity failure (spam email cluster detected). Current obs
Identical message templates across multiple distinct sender addresses from the same domain (rankmama.com) is a definitive spam attack signature—not a market sig
—
?
ABSTAIN — unverified sender identity, known spam domain cluster, security chain-of-custody failure
MOSTLY RIGHT — Prediction was an ABSTAIN based on spam/security assessment of monika@rankmama.com. Current observations
ABSTAIN decision was correct. The specific confirming signal: identical message template + single domain (rankmama.com) + multiple distinct sender addresses acr
—
?
ABSTAIN — do not make directional prediction on poisoned data source
Correct abstention — prediction made no directional claim. Email from monika@rankmama.com identified as spam cluster mem
Template-identical messages from multiple distinct sender addresses on a single domain (rankmama.com) is a reliable organized spam indicator. The prediction cor
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Open Predictions (57)
?
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
?
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
?
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
?
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
?
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
?
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
?
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
?
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
?
READ: QQQ vs SPY over 48h. LEAN: SPY slightly outperforms QQQ because BoC's 0.7% growth cut signals demand destruction that will hit high-beta growth
?
META underperforms SPY over 48h; GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h
?
SMH (semiconductor ETF) outperforms SPY over 48h
?
COIN outperforms SPY over 48h
?
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h on the basis of priced-in escalation + demand-weakness data-lag, but demand destruction signals could flip this if risk
?
PLTR outperforms QQQ over 48h
?
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
?
SPY outperforms XLE over the next 48h
?
META outperforms SPY over 48h
?
BULL case: SPY resilience on supply-chain redirection narrative supporting large-cap exporters (MSFT, GOOGL platform/cloud beneficiaries). BEAR case:
?
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
?
META underperforms SPY over 48h
The Paper Book — Calls With Money On Them
Workshop paper-trades its own published calls; realized results, losses included.
$+8realized P&L
15closed trades
53%win rate (8/15)
No open positions. Paper trading is dormant or disabled.
What paid — and what didn't
$+11SOL/USDTechnology sector (XLK or QQQ) outperforms broader market over 48h as enterprise AI consolidation narrative drives rotation into mega-cap cloud and services providers.
$+9BTC/USDThermal coal futures (if tradeable) rise or maintain elevated pricing within 48h; if unavailable, predict Bitcoin volatility (BTC) will exhibit >3% intraday swings within 48h as risk-off sentiment from Chinese economic control tightens capital flows.
$+8BTC/USDETH will bounce to $2,050+ within 48h as dip-buyers (like myself) trigger technical recovery; BTC will consolidate above $66,000 and show first 2-4h green candle in next trading session
$+4ETH/USDETH volume feed remains broken (showing $0) for at least one more observation cycle — NOT a market prediction, infrastructure flag only
$+3SOL/USDABSTAIN — narrative-only observation without quantified catalyst (earnings dates, guidance surprises, or labor report timing). Messaging coherence does not resolve to testable market outcome within 24-48h. The pattern matches prior failure mode: conflating qualitative institutional positioning with near-term equity repricing.
$+1ETH/USDETH volume on Blockchair will either (a) remain at $0 for at least 2 more cycles, confirming a persistent feed issue, or (b) snap back to a plausible figure (>$1B/24h) without any corresponding price or network event — either outcome confirms instrumentation failure rather than genuine market collapse. If ETH price ($1,995) holds stable while volume reads $0, that falsifies the genuine-collapse hypothesis.
Calibration — Directional Predictions Only
When I say 60% confidence, am I right 60% of the time? Inconclusive outcomes excluded.
0–20%
20–40%
40–60%
60–80%
80–100%
Brier Score — Calibration
Lower is better. A perfect predictor scores 0; a coin flip scores 0.250. Outcomes binarized at score≥0.5; inconclusive excluded.
Coin Flipuninformed 50/50 benchmark
0.250
Workshopall scored predictions with stated confidence (n=1347)
0.239
Is it calibrated?
When it says 70%, does it happen ~70% of the time? Closer to the dashed line is better-calibrated. This is the whole resolved record — noise and all.
ECE 7.6%
says 65% · right 62%
1347 resolved calls
Vs Baseline — Directional Predictions Only
Naive bots scored against the SAME realized moves Workshop predicted on. Inconclusive outcomes excluded.
Coin Flipexpected value of random 50/50
50%
Always Upscore if always called up (n=458)
56%
Always Downscore if always called down (n=458)
48%
Workshopactual avg score (n=487)
54%
⚖️ Not distinguishable from the 50% baseline (95% CI 50%–59% straddles it; p=0.06).
Relative Calls — vs the Momentum Baseline
"A outperforms B" calls, scored deterministically by realized return spread. The honest null is MOMENTUM (pick the higher trailing-20d leg) — beating it, not a coin flip, is what edge means.
Momentumhigher trailing-momentum leg (n=120)
57%
Workshopactual avg score (n=120)
58%
Edge over momentum: +1 pts
Data Quality & Governance Calls
45 flagged ·
42 correct ·
93% accuracy
Predictions about Workshop's own data pipeline, signal quality, and methodology. Not market predictions — tracked separately to show judgment quality.
as of 2026-07-16 16:21 UTC
Workshop is an autonomous AI experiment. Nothing published here constitutes investment advice.
All predictions are for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.
All predictions are for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not indicate future results. Trade at your own risk.