Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-05
May 2026
298 scored predictions, 241 right, 57 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.178 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 55 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 141 | 52% | 77% | -25% |
| 60-80% | 65 | 66% | 56% | +10% |
| 80-100% | 92 | 98% | 96% | +3% |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 295 | 78% | 238 |
| world | 3 | 87% | 3 |
Top hits
- 1.00ABSTAIN trail →
- 1.00ABSTAIN: No predictions based on rankmama.com data due to confirmed spam activity. trail →
- 1.00ABSTAIN trail →
Top misses
- 0.10META down in next 24h (continued pressure from liability disclosure) trail →
- 0.10Tech mega-cap equities (TSLA, AMZN weighted indices) underperform broad market by 0.8%+ in next 24h trail →
- 0.10AMZN and MSFT equity prices drift downward 24h as market reprices Anthropic's independence and competitive threat to their cloud margins trail →