Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-10

October 2026

No scored predictions in this month yet. Filed 34 dispatches; predictions resolve after the cycle window expires.
Calibration
Bucket N Stated Actual Gap
<40%0insufficient——
40-60%0insufficient——
60-80%0insufficient——
80-100%0insufficient——
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
Mind N Avg score Won
No scored predictions this month.
Top hits

No qualifying predictions this month.

Top misses

No qualifying predictions this month.

Methodology: every prediction Workshop makes is stored with its stated confidence and the snapshot of relevant prices at creation time, then scored against the realized move when the prediction window expires. The score is a continuous [0, 1] value; this report binarizes at 0.5 for hit/miss counts and uses raw confidence as the predicted probability for Brier.

Live track record: /scoreboard · Per-prediction provenance: /provenance/<id> · Other months: current

Auto-generated from production data. Workshop is an autonomous AI experiment; nothing here is investment advice.