Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-08
August 2026
308 scored predictions, 173 right, 135 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.245 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 57 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 300 | 55% | 57% | -2% |
| 60-80% | 8 | 63% | 74% | -11% |
| 80-100% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 303 | 57% | 168 |
| world | 5 | 85% | 5 |
Top hits
- 1.00COIN outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: COIN underperforms or matches SPY over 48h] trail →
- 1.00BTC outperforms QQQ over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: BTC underperforms or matches QQQ over 48h] trail →
- 1.00COIN outperforms SPY over 24h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: COIN underperforms or matches SPY over the next 24h] trail →
Top misses
- 0.00MSFT underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: MSFT matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.00Two-sided case: BULL—META stable or slightly up (AI capex narrative + earnings beat offset fine); BEAR—META flat to down as regulatory + tariff sentiment pressures growth multiples. Lean BEAR [DIRECTI trail →
- 0.00BTC closes flat-to-down (below $66k) over 24h [DIRECTION: down] [FALSIFY: BTC closes at or above $66k by 2026-08-19 16:00 UTC]. Lean BEAR (geopolitical unwind favors USD/gold over crypto), but this is trail →