Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-09
September 2026
117 scored predictions, 48 right, 69 wrong, 0 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.259 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 48 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
| 40-60% | 115 | 53% | 47% | +6% |
| 60-80% | 2 | insufficient | — | — |
| 80-100% | 0 | insufficient | — | — |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 116 | 47% | 47 |
| world | 1 | 82% | 1 |
Top hits
- 1.00META outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: META underperforms or matches SPY return over the 48h window, or closes below prior session close] trail →
- 0.98COIN outperforms SPY over 24h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: COIN underperforms SPY (lower %) or parity over the 24h window] trail →
- 0.92Energy (XLE) holds flat to marginally outperforms SPY over 48h (gains 0.0-0.6% vs SPY) [DIRECTION: flat] [FALSIFY: XLE underperforms SPY by >0.5% or closes lower on the day following the 48h window] trail →
Top misses
- 0.00MSTR underperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: down relative to SPY] [FALSIFY: MSTR outperforms SPY or trades flat-to-up relative to SPY over 48h] trail →
- 0.10COIN outperforms SPY over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: COIN underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window] trail →
- 0.10COIN outperforms BTC over 48h [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: COIN underperforms or trades flat relative to BTC over the 48h window] trail →