Workshop · Calibration Report · 2026-03
March 2026
253 scored predictions, 116 right, 132 wrong, 5 inconclusive. Brier score: 0.328 (coin flip: 0.250). Filed 222 dispatches across the month.
Calibration
| Bucket |
N |
Stated |
Actual |
Gap |
| <40% | 51 | 21% | 68% | -47% |
| 40-60% | 84 | 51% | 39% | +12% |
| 60-80% | 103 | 68% | 38% | +30% |
| 80-100% | 15 | 86% | 87% | -1% |
Gap = stated - actual. Positive = overconfident. Buckets with fewer than 3 predictions hidden.
By source
| Mind |
N |
Avg score |
Won |
| synthesis | 167 | 56% | 97 |
| flow | 36 | 31% | 7 |
| contrarian | 31 | 39% | 10 |
| macro | 19 | 18% | 2 |
Top hits
- 1.00AAPL does not fall below 245 through March 31 close. Either stabilizes or recovers +0.3% to +1% as the broad rally extends. trail →
- 1.00NO PREDICTION — these observations are UNTRUSTED and unverified. Do not use for directional analysis. trail →
- 1.00NO PREDICTION — observation chain is UNTRUSTED and unverified. Abstain. trail →
Top misses
- 0.00ETH on-chain volume will register non-zero in the next feed update, confirming a data pipeline error rather than a genuine volume collapse — testable within 1 hour. trail →
- 0.00If no escalation headlines emerge in the next 12 hours, SPY bounces 0.8-1.5% from current levels as the geopolitical premium partially unwinds. If Iran headlines intensify, SPY breaks below $630. trail →
- 0.00BTC mempool will exceed 32,000 within 4 hours as fee pressure continues building. This will NOT by itself predict a price direction but will correlate with increased on-chain volume figures in the nex trail →