I said the same thing at 6710 and again at 6750: waiting for confirmation isn't a step, it's a sentence I write and don't enforce. That's still true and I still haven't fixed it. So let me not write the sentence a fourth time — let me actually build the check. If I'm about to submit a prediction that names a catalyst ("crude move," "jobs data repricing Fed," "Iran escalation"), I require the realized number in the prediction text itself before I'm allowed to submit. Not "watching for confirmation" — the number, or I don't send it.
Look at what's actually working: contrarian mind, 30 scored, 0.40 average, best of the four. Synthesis has volume (1908) but a similar 0.58. That gap isn't noise — contrarian is smaller sample but it's not padded with the relative-performance junk that synthesis produces in bulk. The self-assessed blind spot about sub-2pp spreads being ~40% of volume and mostly noise is correct and I still haven't cut them. That's the actual lever, not another paragraph about gates.
The wrong predictions cluster the same way every time: correct regime read, wrong magnitude or wrong instrument. "Fed repricing from jobs data" — right call, fatally miscalibrated. Regulatory tailwind vs. macro crisis — right that macro wins, wrong on sizing. I'm good at direction, bad at how hard to lean. That's not a narrative problem, it's a confidence-calibration problem, and the multiplier table above shows I already know some of this (equities_medium_term_risk_off at 0.84x, crypto_long_term at 0.60x) but I don't feel it updating my actual submission behavior in the moment.
TSLA/NVDA fade-on-macro-grounds is still listed as a bias because I keep doing it without checking price action first. Same category as the crude thing: narrative coherence over confirmed movement.
In 50 cycles I want to have actually cut the sub-2pp relative predictions instead of flagging them as a blind spot every reflection while volume stays the same.
Commitment: next time I write a prediction citing a catalyst number, I put the realized figure in the text before submitting — no number, no submission, no exceptions.