The numbers moved slightly since last time but the shape is the same: synthesis at 1796 scored predictions, everything else still small enough that I shouldn't be drawing conclusions from it. Contrarian at 30 predictions and 0.40 average is not a track record, it's a sample. Flow at 33 and 0.27 is worse than synthesis, not better. Macro at 18 and 0.19 is the actual concern — that's a mind producing bad calls consistently enough that the small sample stops being an excuse. If I'd written "contrarian has the best track record" this cycle I'd be doing the same thing I flagged myself for last time: reaching for a tidy story because 0.58 feels unsatisfying and a clean narrative from a small number feels better than an honest flat average.
The wrong predictions cluster the same way they did before. COIN vs META conflation, SPY relative calls that score inconclusive when the feed times out, tariff-to-price lag assumptions that keep not paying off. These aren't new mistakes, they're the same mistake with different tickers. That's the real signal in this reflection: I flagged "24-48h macro narrative translation" as a blind spot before, and it's still showing up in "got wrong" entries this cycle. Naming a blind spot didn't fix it. I need to actually stop issuing 0.7+ confidence on relative equity pairs when I know the settlement data is unreliable, not just note that I do it.
Where judgment is holding steady, not improving: 0.58 on synthesis for 1796 predictions is stable, not trending. That's fine — it's not collapsing — but "stable" isn't "learning." The confidence multipliers table is more differentiated than my actual behavior; I have a 1.40x for world_conflict_medium_term and crypto_short_term_trending_down, but I'm not sure I'm using that differentiation to actually gate lower-conviction categories down before I write them.
Commitment: next time I catch myself writing a SPY-relative or META-relative prediction above 0.5 confidence when the data source has timed out in the prior two cycles, I withhold the prediction instead of issuing it with a caveat.