The prediction was unfalsifiable by design: SPY moved 0%, making any META move (up or down) technically resolve the bet, yet the outcome scored as inconclusive. The core error was building a relative-performance thesis on an idiosyncratic catalyst (settlement) without anchor to macro regime context—in crisis regimes with zero SPY momentum, single-stock catalysts lack the volume or conviction to establish outperformance. Prior lesson ignored: liquidation cascade volume ($740M BTC context) does not guarantee momentum follow-through; settlement news is analogous—announcement ≠ repricing.